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Thoughts and Predictions ahead of China
The first three rounds of the Formula 1 World Championship have been rather enlightening. Red Bull are by far the dominant squad yet are plagued by reliability issues. Ferrari are the "best of the rest" but engine longevity is raising questions regarding how long they can stay in the hunt. McLaren seem to be lacking in qualifying pace but seem effective in races. And Rosberg has shown the Mercedes package can be competitive in both qualifying and the races given the right conditions.
The net result of all this is that the top 7 drivers are covered by 9 points - a small gap under the old points system and almost negligible under the new one. In those top 7 drivers is Robert Kubica who is experiencing a re-birth of sorts at Renault. The closeness of the championship is such that any one of 8 drivers could leave China in the lead.
But is this a form of false entertainment? So far, there has been one fantastic race, one good race and one mediocre one. The only race to be ran over "normal" weekend conditions (i.e. dry Quali/Race) happened to be the mediocre one, which doesn't bode well with a string of potential tedium ahead of us. So let's make the most of the unpredictablility of the far east while we still have it.
This will be Red Bull's race to lose. One would imagine that the two Red Bulls will qualify on or around the front row, and whichever one finishes the first lap first will win the race. However, things may not be so simple. The FIA have clairified the rules on ride height adjustments, effectively ruling it illegal at any point except the pit-lane during the race. It has been much rumoured that Red Bull are utilising a Ride Height Adjustment System in Parc Ferme to eek out a couple of extra tenths in qualifying over their competitors. Although Red Bull have passionatly denied the use of such a system, will they lose their competitve edge in qualifying? Even if they do dominate Saturday, they still have to prove they can reliably finish Sundays off too.
Should Red Bull faulter, expect a tightly faught battle between Ferrari, McLaren, Rosberg and Kubica. This little group have been tightly knit all season and produced some great racing, and don't show any signs of letting up. At the moment, it's raw pace advantage for Hamilton and Alonso, although the results advantage lies in favour of Massa and Button.
One of the big questions of the weekend is - can Schumacher get in the mix again? In many respects he appears to have regressed, having suffered a dismal Sepang weekend. However, his raw dry pace seems to be steadily improving and it's too early to write him off yet. While I don't expect any podiums soon, hopefully he can latch onto the Hamilton, Alonso et al. group and get back into the championship fight.
As far as the rest of the field is concerned, it's definitely advantage Force India. Williams look competitive but seem to be lacking the extra edge to really penetrate the points. Toro Rosso will be relieved to have got on the scoreboard, and Peter Sauber must be wondering what he did to deserve the dodgy batch of Ferrari engines.
Lotus have definitely shown themselves to be fastest of the new teams. Interestingly, Virgin are in danger of becoming the slowest of the new teams (but despite their fuel tank issues registered their first finish of the season). Perhaps even more surprisingly, Chandhok beat Senna by a whole lap in Malaysia. Hmm...
Time for the predictions this week, going for a safe one even with the threat of rain in the air again....
Predictions - Vettel, Webber, Alonso. Wild card - Kubica
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